Building the Bakken Radio Show Part 1: How long will the Bakken “boom” last?

Interviewed in this feature:  Richard Gardner, PHD Center for Rural Entrepreneurship, Patrick Hart, President Meyer Real Estate Group, Ken DeCubellis, CEO, Black Ridge Oil & Gas, Nancy Hodur, Research Professor NDSU, Shawn Kessel, Dickinson City Administrator, Peter Elzi, Principal Partner THK Associates

How long will the Bakken Boom last? This is the billion dollar question we posed to industry experts Ken DeCubellis, Nancy Hodur, Dr. Peter Elzi, Patrick Hart, Dr. Richard Gardner and Shawn Kessel.

Dr. Richard Gardner, Center for Rural Entrepreneurship, says population growths of 1-3% are normal, 3-5% starts to stretch the ability of small towns to deal with the growth. Gardner says their projects show the city of Williston projecting an 8% growth increase per year until 2020. Gardner says those numbers “boggle the mind and there is no way you can plan well enough to be building water systems, sewer systems, roads, parks, schools fast enough to meet that demand.”

Patrick Hart, president of Meyer Real Estate Group, says their company is poised for 5-10 years of “hyper-growth.” Meyer said their company is participating in the hyper-growth in a variety of industries in the oil patch. He added the Bakken play will span over 20-50 years and will change the way of life for “the Western edge.” Things will level off after 5-10 years of hyper-growth, but Hart believes it will be up to 10 years of a “frenzy.”

Ken DeCubellis, CEO, Black Ridge Oil & Gas, said there will be two phases in the boom.  First, the oil production.  Once the wells are in place, they will produce for 20-30 years.  DeCubellis added the level of investment in drilling will be moderated by the access to the pipeline needed to move oil to the refinery. He said western ND lacks that infrastructure right now, and until that investment occurs, it will moderate the pace of activity. He added that in the end there will be a 5-10 year span of frenzy-like activity before leveling off.  DeCubellis said the “big wild card” is if they find more productive formations. He added Continental Resources recently began talking about a third bench of the Bakken in northern McKenzie County. He also pointed out the Three Forks Layer, which has yet to be “fully understood,” in his opinion, and if those layers become productive, the Bakken Boom could continue even longer.

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